An Expert Elicitation of the Effects of Low Salinity Water Exposure on Bottlenose Dolphins

Cormac Booth,Len Thomas

doi:10.3390/oceans2010011

Abstract

There is increasing concern over anthropogenically driven changes in our oceans and seas, from a variety of stressors. Such stressors include the increased risk of storms and precipitation, offshore industries and increased coastal development which can affect the marine environment. For some coastal cetacean species, there is an increased exposure to low salinity waters which have been linked with a range of adverse health effects in bottlenose dolphins. Knowledge gaps persist regarding how different time–salinity exposures affect the health and survival of animals. In such data-poor instances, expert elicitation can be used to convert an expert’s qualitative knowledge into subjective probability distributions. The management implications of this stressor and the subjective nature of expert elicitation requires transparency; we have addressed this here, utilizing the Sheffield Elicitation Framework. The results are a series of time response scenarios to estimate time to death in bottlenose dolphins, for use when data are insufficient to estimate probabilistic summaries. This study improves our understanding of how low salinity exposure effects dolphins, guiding priorities for future research, while its outputs can be used to support coastal management on a global scale.

Highlights

Over recent decades, there has been increasing concern over anthropogenically driven changes in our oceans and seas representing both single and multiple stressors for marine species [1]
There has been increasing concern over anthropogenically driven changes in our oceans and seas representing both single and multiple stressors for marine species [1]. These stressors exist across a range of scales, ranging from the pressing concern of climate change [2], marine heat waves [3,4], ocean acidification and deoxygenation [5], to increased anthropogenic perturbations from noise [6,7], overfishing and bycatch [8]
The experts were asked to identify and consider the main pathways by which low salinity exposure could impact upon the health and survival of bottlenose dolphins

Summary

Introduction

There has been increasing concern over anthropogenically driven changes in our oceans and seas representing both single and multiple stressors for marine species [1]. The Gulf of Mexico, USA, is a region with significant fisheries, oil and gas industry presence and one that experiences a storm season between July and November each year [12]. This is the drainage location for the Mississippi River, which is among the highest freshwater runoffs in the world [13]

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Conclusion