Abstract
Public policy limits the quantity of timber which is cut from federal forest land in order to avoid a timber shortage. This policy has led the U.S. Department of Agriculture to employ forecasts of future demand for forest products, including lumber. Lumber demand has been estimated regionally, but demand parameters have been assumed stable so that fixed coefficient methods are employed in official forecasts. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that regional lumber demand parameters are stochastic. We find the demand for lumber in all regions except the Southeast to be fairly stable.
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