Abstract
Background: New Zealand has a single paediatric and adult congenital cardiac surgical centre and as such provides an ideal opportunity to identify population-based trends in the growth of adult survivors of congenital heart surgery (CHS). This information will enhance understanding of the burden of disease and of future resource requirements. Methods: Those with a first operation date from 1986 - 2015 were included and cumulative survival was calculated according to age group (Adult, Child, Infant and Neonate). Data were extrapolated to predict the future numbers of post-surgical adult and paediatric patients over the subsequent decade. Results: The proportion of adult and child survivors has changed dramatically over the past 30 years. In 2010-2014, there were more adult than paediatric survivors of CHS. Adult surgical survivors are growing at an exponential rate while child numbers remain relatively constant. In 10 years the number of adult survivors will outnumber children by 2:1 and this is coupled with an increasing complexity in surgery with potential for increased morbidity in adult survivors. Conclusions: The number of ACHD patients is growing rapidly and placing an increased demand on resource utilisation. To maintain an effective service, planning, strategies and funding are required to meet current and future needs.
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