An evolutionary fuzzy system to support the replacement policy in water supply networks: The ranking of pipes according to their failure risk

Abstract

In this study, an evolutionary fuzzy system is proposed to predict unexpected pipe failures in water supply networks. The system seeks to underpin the decisions of management companies regarding the maintenance and replacement plans of pipes. On the one hand, fuzzy logic provides high degrees of interpretability over other black box models, which is requested in engineering application where decisions have social consequences. On the other hand, the genetic algorithm helps to optimize the parameters that govern the model, specifically, for two purposes: (i) the selection of variables; and (ii) the optimization of membership functions.Data from a real water supply network are used to evaluate the accuracy of the developed system. Several graphs that depict the ranking of pipes according to their risk of failure against the network length to be replaced support the choice of the most successful model. In fact, results demonstrate that the annual replacement of 6.75% of the network length makes it possible to prevent 41.14% of unexpected pipe failures.