An evolutionary ensemble model based on GA for epidemic transmission prediction

Abstract

This paper proposes an evolutionary ensemble model based on a Genetic Algorithm (GAEEM) to predict the transmission trend of infectious diseases based on ensemble again and prediction again. The model utilizes the strong global optimization capability of GA for tuning the ensemble structure. Compared with the traditional ensemble learning model, GAEEM has three main advantages: 1) It is set to address the problems of information leakage in the traditional Stacking strategy and overfitting in the Blending strategy. 2) It uses a GA to optimize the combination of base learners and determine the sub. 3) The feature dimension of the data used in this layer is extended based on the optimal base learner combination prediction information data, which can reduce the risk of underfitting and increase prediction accuracy. The experimental results show that the R2 performance of the model in the six cities data set is higher than all the comparison models by 0.18 on average. The MAE and MSE are lower than 42.98 and 42,689.72 on average. The fitting performance is more stable in each data set and shows good generalization, which can predict the epidemic spread trend of each city more accurately.