Evidential approach to affordable housing programme development: an Ontario case study

Abstract

Housing affordability is a global crisis. UN Habitat estimated in 2020 that 80% of global cities do not have affordable housing options for the majority of their population; the World Economic Forum estimates a need for an extra two billion homes over the next 75 years (96,000 completions per day). The Canadian Centre for Housing Rights points to a confluence of economic, social and governmental factors created today’s homelessness and affordability issues. In Q3 2022, The Royal Bank of Canada reported that 62.7% of Ontarians' household income goes towards the cost of home ownership, skewed by 85.2% in Toronto. Traditional affordable housing models aren’t working. A 2023 Ontario regional affordable housing feasibility study provided the opportunity for a new approach. Independent analysis of open-source evidence, with risk evaluation and allocation, demonstrated the local applicability of two decades of international lessons of affordable housing projects. It provided an objective approach that serves the health of tenants and the wider community. In challenging preconceptions, it showed that a capability-based infrastructure development planning approach would be most suitable for affordable housing projects. Furthermore, it found that an enterprise-wide, transparent and outcomes-focussed governance structure is essential to successful risk allocation.