An Evidence Accumulation Model for Conflict Detection Performance in a Simulated Air Traffic Control Task

Abstract

The aim of this article is to develop a formal model of conflict detection performance. Our model assumes that participants iteratively sample evidence regarding the state of the world and accumulate it over time. A decision is made when the evidence reaches a threshold that changes over time in response to the increasing urgency of the task. Two experiments were conducted to examine the effects of conflict geometry and timing on response proportions and response time. The model is able to predict the observed pattern of response times, including a nonmonotonic relationship between distance at point of closest approach and response time, as well as effects of angle of approach and relative velocity. The results demonstrate that evidence accumulation models provide a good account of performance on a conflict detection task. Evidence accumulation models are a form of dynamic signal detection theory, allowing for the analysis of response times as well as response proportions, and can be used for simulating human performance on dynamic decision tasks.