An Eventful End to an Eventful Year

Abstract

The year 2017 started with a bang in Asia and ended not with a whimper but with an even bigger bang. The election of U.S. President Donald Trump shook up old premises about U.S. engagement in Asia that had long been taken for granted. The new U.S. government took a strong interest in developments in the Korean Peninsula after DPRK leader Kim Jong Un launched his country's most dangerous nuclear tests yet. However, other aspects of what had long been a traditional U.S. posture in the region suffered from some uncertainty. These included doubts about the U.S. president's sensitivity to the strategic concerns of its allies Japan and South Korea, as well as support for multilateral trade and economic cooperation arrangements that the former Obama government had supported, especially the Trans Pacific Partnership. The “America First” policy also raised questions about the extent to which trade tensions with China and other countries would dominate U.S. foreign policy, and as a consequence imperil long-term U.S. economic influence in the region. Trump's visits to several Asian countries in the latter part of the year went some ways in giving his counterparts in the region some assurances, but apparently not quite enough. In Southeast Asia, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) commemoration of the 50th anniversary of its 1967 establishment provided much occasion to look back and be thankful for the economic success, relative peace, and cordial relations among the neighboring states in this formerly war-torn region. But serious challenges loom in the immediate future, including those arising from domestic political contestations in several states; Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia saw signs of growing dissension in 2017. There was also slow progress in economic integration under the ASEAN Economic Community, as well as ASEAN's inability to unify the perspectives of member-states on certain key regional security concerns, including disputes with China in the South China Sea, and the massive humanitarian crisis brought about by repression and abuses by the Myanmar military against the Rohingya minority in Rakhine State. Another sad endnote to the [email protected] celebrations was the untimely passing of Surin Pitsuwan, former ASEAN Secretary-General (2007–2012), consummate diplomat, humanitarian, and peace-maker, who until his very last days was on the road promoting Southeast Asian cooperation. In the Philippines, a siege by an ISIS-inspired rebel group—founded by the Maute brothers—lasted for five months in the once-prosperous and beautiful Islamic city of Marawi in the southern island of Mindanao. The urban landscape was reduced to rubble—a dire warning to the region that—as extremist violence in Iraq and Syria was dwindling, Southeast Asia could easily be the next major front. Toward year-end, the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China gave President Xi Jinping a fresh five-year mandate which promises to bring even bolder and possibly more controversial measures than those we witnessed during the five years just ended. The “China dream” elucidated by Xi not only portends continuing efforts by China on the path to greater power (in particular, military power), but an invigoration of the Party's control over both the Army and the State. In external relations, the Belt and Road Initiative emerged as a major platform for China to integrate its own economy even further across the globe through infrastructure, trade, and financial connectivity projects. Whereas “America First,” Brexit, and the growth of Islamophobia and right-wing populism in the West may portend loosening links between Asia and the West, China continues to reach out not only to the West and its East Asian neighbors but to the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and beyond, with promises of infrastructure investments and welcoming markets. Economic problems bedeviled the Chinese economy as well, not least a massive debt. Yet, should there indeed be a Western retreat from global engagement whether in economic or security affairs, the space for growth of China's own influence and leadership will inevitably expand. The sentiment in Beijing is that China is on the cusp of fully rising to reclaim its lost glory; after a “hundred years of humiliation,” it is closer than ever to the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation that its people have long aspired for. Selective as these highlighted events from 2017 are, we are tempted to predict that 2018 in Asia will be no less interesting.