An evaluation of transport mode shift policies on transport-related physical activity through simulations based on random forests

Ruben Brondeel,Yan Kestens,Basile Chaix

doi:10.1186/s12966-017-0600-1

Abstract

BackgroundPhysical inactivity is widely recognized as one of the leading causes of mortality, and transport accounts for a large part of people’s daily physical activity. This study develops a simulation approach to evaluate the impact of the Ile-de-France Urban Mobility Plan (2010–2020) on physical activity, under the hypothesis that the intended transport mode shifts are realized.MethodsBased on the Global Transport Survey (2010, n = 21,332) and on the RECORD GPS Study (2012–2013, n = 229) from the French capital region of Paris (Ile-de-France), a simulation method was designed and tested. The simulation method used accelerometer data and random forest models to predict the impact of the transport mode shifts anticipated in the Mobility Plan on transport-related moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (T-MVPA). The transport mode shifts include less private motorized trips in favor of more public transport, walking, and biking trips.ResultsThe simulation model indicated a mean predicted increase of 2 min per day of T-MVPA, in case the intended transport mode shifts in the Ile-de-France Urban Mobility Plan were realized. The positive effect of the transport mode shifts on T-MVPA would, however, be larger for people with a higher level of education. This heterogeneity in the positive effect would further increase the existing inequality in transport-related physical activity by educational level.ConclusionsThe method presented in this paper showed a significant increase in transport-related physical activity in case the intended mode shifts in the Ile-de-France Urban Mobility Plan were realized. This simulation method could be applied on other important health outcomes, such as exposure to noise or air pollution, making it a useful tool to anticipate the health impact of transport interventions or policies.

Highlights

Physical inactivity is widely recognized as one of the leading causes of mortality, and transport accounts for a large part of people’s daily physical activity
Most of the observed T-Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) was related to walking trips (6.81 min, Confidence interval (CI) = 6.79; 6.83) and public transport trips (6.79 min, CI = 6.77; 6.80), followed by private motorized transport trips (4.21 min, CI = 4.20; 4.21) and biking trips (1.17 min, CI = 1.16; 1.18)
Doubling and tripling the transport mode shifts resulted in gains in Transport-related moderate-tovigorous physical activity (T-MVPA) of 2.9 min and 4.0 min respectively

Summary

Introduction

Physical inactivity is widely recognized as one of the leading causes of mortality, and transport accounts for a large part of people’s daily physical activity. This study develops a simulation approach to evaluate the impact of the Ile-de-France Urban Mobility Plan (2010–2020) on physical activity, under the hypothesis that the intended transport mode shifts are realized. Physical inactivity is widely recognized as one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity due to its impact on several noncommunicable diseases [2, 3]. Previous studies have evaluated real-world transport policies and interventions in terms of physical activity [8,9,10,11]. Scheepers et al [8] and Petrunoff et al [11] found mostly positive effects on mode shifts from car to active transport of a range of transport interventions; where Arnott et al [9] cautioned

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