Abstract
The article deals with the use of fuzzy logic as a support of evaluation of total project risk. A brief description of actual project risk management, fuzzy set theory, fuzzy logic and the process of calculation is given. The major goal of this paper is to present am new expert decision-making fuzzy model for evaluating total project risk. This fuzzy model based on RIPRAN method. RIPRAN (RIsk PRoject ANalysis) method is an empirical method for the analysis of project risks. The Fuzzy Logic Toolbox in MATLAB software was used to create the decision-making fuzzy model. The advantage of the fuzzy model is the ability to transform the input variables The Number of Sub-Risks (NSR) and The Total Value of Sub-Risks (TVSR) to linguistic variables, as well as linguistic evaluation of the Total Value of Project Risk (TVPR) – output variable. With this approach it is possible to simulate the risk value and uncertainty that are always associated with real projects. The scheme of the model, rule block, attributes and their membership functions are mentioned in a case study. The use of fuzzy logic is a particular advantage in decision-making processes where description by algorithms is extremely difficult and criteria are multiplied.
Highlights
Project management is nowadays a widely discussed theme
This phase evaluates the total project risk based on two parameters: the number of sub-risks and the total value of sub risk
The case study presents the use of fuzzy logic at evaluation of total project risk base on RIPRAN method
Summary
Project management is nowadays a widely discussed theme. This fact is substantiated by numerous scientific articles, books and publications dealing with these problems (Bergantiños, Vidal-Puga 2009; Pérez et al 2005; Rosenau 2007; Schwable 2011). This discipline is included in the courses of numerous faculties focusing on economy both in the Czech Republic and abroad. Project risk management is the responsibility of the entire life cycle of project. Risk management of the project consists of process of risk analysis and process of risk monitoring. Project manager or other members of project team can for risk project analysis use some methods (Rais, Smejkal 2013): scoring method (Podmolík 2006), FRAAP method – Facilitated Risk Analysis and Assessment Process (Peltier 2005), RIPRAN method (Lacko 2004; Doležal et al 2012) and more
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