Abstract
AbstractThe performance of a new historical reanalysis, the NOAA–CIRES–DOE Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3), is evaluated via comparisons with other reanalyses and independent observations. This dataset provides global, 3-hourly estimates of the atmosphere from 1806 to 2015 by assimilating only surface pressure observations and prescribing sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, and radiative forcings. Comparisons with independent observations, other reanalyses, and satellite products suggest that 20CRv3 can reliably produce atmospheric estimates on scales ranging from weather events to long-term climatic trends. Not only does 20CRv3 recreate a “best estimate” of the weather, including extreme events, it also provides an estimate of its confidence through the use of an ensemble. Surface pressure statistics suggest that these confidence estimates are reliable. Comparisons with independent upper-air observations in the Northern Hemisphere demonstrate that 20CRv3 has skill throughout the twentieth century. Upper-air fields from 20CRv3 in the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century correlate well with full-input reanalyses, and the correlation is predicted by the confidence fields from 20CRv3. The skill of analyzed 500-hPa geopotential heights from 20CRv3 for 1979–2015 is comparable to that of modern operational 3–4-day forecasts. Finally, 20CRv3 performs well on climate time scales. Long time series and multidecadal averages of mass, circulation, and precipitation fields agree well with modern reanalyses and station- and satellite-based products. 20CRv3 is also able to capture trends in tropospheric-layer temperatures that correlate well with independent products in the twentieth century, placing recent trends in a longer historical context.
Highlights
A detailed understanding of past weather and climate, including variability and trends, is essential to better understand and predict ongoing changes in climate and weather statistics
Modern upper-air comparisons In Fig. 5 we evaluate the skill of Z500 estimates in 20CR version 3 (20CRv3), a large-scale variable that governs atmospheric circulation patterns, with respect to ERA5, the latest full-input reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) (Hersbach et al 2020; Hersbach and Dee 2016)
The availability of comparable datasets decreases further back in time, the results shown here demonstrate that 20CRv3 can produce useful state estimates for its full time span and that its internal estimates of uncertainty are informative and reliable in the illustrated situations
Summary
SLIVINSKI ET AL. L. C. SLIVINSKI,a,b G. P. COMPO,a,b P. D. SARDESHMUKH,a,b J. S. WHITAKER,b C. MCCOLL,a,b R. J. ALLAN,c P. BROHAN,c X. YIN,d C. A. SMITH,a,b L. J. SPENCER,a,b R. S. VOSE,e M. ROHRER,f,g R. P. CONROY,h D. C. SCHUSTER,h J. J. KENNEDY,c L. ASHCROFT,i S. BRÖNNIMANN,f M. BRUNET,j,k D. CAMUFFO,l R. CORNES,m T. A. CRAM,h F. DOMÍNGUEZ-CASTRO,n,o J. E. FREEMAN,d J. GERGIS,p,q E. HAWKINS,r P. D. JONES,k H. KUBOTA,s T. C. LEE,t A. M. LORREY,u J. LUTERBACHER,v C. J. MOCK,w R. K. PRZYBYLAK,x,y C. PUDMENZKY,z V. C. SLONOSKY,aa B. TINZ,bb B. TREWIN,cc X. L. WANG,dd C. WILKINSON,k K. WOOD,ee,ff AND P. WYSZYN SKIx,y a Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado b NOAA/Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado c Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom d Riverside Technology, Inc., Asheville, North Carolina e National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, North Carolina f Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland g Axis Capital, Zurich, Switzerland h National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado i School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia j Centre for Climate Change, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Spain k Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom l National Research Council, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Padua, Italy m National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom n Aragonese Agency for Research and Development (ARAID), Zaragoza, Spain o Department of Geography, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain p Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia q ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia r National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, United Kingdom s Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan t Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China u National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Auckland, New Zealand v World Meteorological Organization, Science and Innovation Department, Geneva, Switzerland w Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina x Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Nicolaus Copernicus University, Torun, Poland y Centre for Climate Change Research, Nicolaus Copernicus University, Torun, Poland z Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia aa Centre for Interdisciplinary Studies of Montreal, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada bb Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hamburg, Germany cc Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia dd Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada ee NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington ff Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (Manuscript received 2 July 2020, in final form 13 November 2020)
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