An Evaluation of the GOES-16 Rapid Scan for Nowcasting in Southeastern Brazil: Analysis of a Severe Hailstorm Case

Abstract

Abstract The GOES-16 mesoscale domain sector (MDS) scans with 1-min intervals are used in this study to analyze a severe thunderstorm case that occurred in southeastern Brazil. The main objective is to evaluate the GOES-16 MDS rapid scans against the operational full-disk scans with lower temporal resolution for nowcasting. Data from a C-band radar, observed sounding, and a ground-based lightning network are also used in the analysis. A group of thunderstorms formed in the afternoon of 29 November 2017 in an environment of moderate convective available potential energy (CAPE) and deep-layer shear. The storms presented supercell characteristics and intense lightning activity with peak rates in excess of 150 flashes per 5 min. The satellite-derived trends with 1-min interval were skillful in detecting thunderstorm intensification, mainly in the developing stage. The decrease in cloud-top 10.35-μm brightness temperature was accompanied by increases in ice mass flux, concentration of small ice particles at cloud top, and storm depth. In the mature stage, there is no evident trend in the satellite-derived parameters that could indicate storm intensification, but the cluster area expands suggesting cloud-top divergence. The 1-min rapid scans indicate greater lead time to severe weather relative to 10- and 15-min-resolution imagery, but also presented numerous false alarms (indication of severe weather but no occurrence) due to oscillations in the satellite-derived parameters. The parameters calculated every 5 min presented better skill than 10 and 15 min and fewer false alarms than 1 min.