Abstract
Abstract. The impact of future climate change on the runoff for the Dongjiang River basin, South China, has been investigated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, the SWAT model was applied in the three sub-basins of the Dongjiang River basin, and calibrated for the period of 1970–1975, and validated for the period of 1976–1985. Then the hydrological response under climate change and land use scenario in the next 40 years (2011–2050) was studied. The future weather data was generated by using the weather generators of SWAT, based on the trend of the observed data series (1966–2005). The results showed that under the future climate change and LUCC scenario, the annual runoff of the three sub-basins all decreased. Its impacts on annual runoff were –6.87%, –6.54%, and –18.16% for the Shuntian, Lantang, and Yuecheng sub-basins respectively, compared with the baseline period 1966–2005. The results of this study could be a reference for regional water resources management since Dongjiang River provides crucial water supplies to Guangdong Province and the District of Hong Kong in China.
Highlights
Traditional water resources research focuses on the natural hydrological processes, but in recent decades, the hydrological cycle and water security issues under the changing environment have attracted more and more attention
This paper was organized as the follows: Section 2 briefly introduces methodologies including the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model description and assessment criteria; in Section 3, we describe the study area, data collection and related hydrological data used in this study; Section 4 is devoted to analyses of hydrological response to future climate against land-use scenarios
The SWAT model was applied to Shuntian, Yuecheng, and Lantang basins with a calibration period of 1970–1975, and validation period of 1976–1985
Summary
Traditional water resources research focuses on the natural hydrological processes, but in recent decades, the hydrological cycle and water security issues under the changing environment have attracted more and more attention. Changing environment, including climate change and human activities, can greatly influence changes of runoff in the basin, which affect and constrain development and utilization of water resources. The SWAT model can be applied to simulate water quantity and quality and evaluate the effects of land-use change and human activities for sustainable water resource management (Ghaffari et al 2010). This study derives from a desire to analyse hydrological response to future climate against land-use scenarios. This paper was organized as the follows: Section 2 briefly introduces methodologies including the SWAT model description and assessment criteria; in Section 3, we describe the study area, data collection and related hydrological data used in this study; Section 4 is devoted to analyses of hydrological response to future climate against land-use scenarios.
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