An Evaluation of the Dynamics of Some Meteorological and Hydrological Processes along the Lower Danube

Abstract

The objective of the present work was to perform a 30-year analysis of some significant meteorological and hydrological processes along the Lower Danube. This was motivated by the fact that, due to the effects of climate change, the global configuration of the environmental matrix has suffered visible transformations in many places. Another important factor considered is related to the constant development noticed in the last few decades of European inland navigation, in general, and in the Lower Danube sector, in particular. From this perspective, the processes analysed were the wind speed at a 10 m height, the air temperature at a 2 m height, precipitation, and river discharge. The 30-year period of 1991–2020 was considered for analysis. The ERA5 reanalysis data were processed and analysed in the case of the first three processes, while for the river discharge, the data provided by the European Flood Awareness System were used. The emphasis was placed on the evolution of the extreme values and on the identification of the geographical locations with a higher probability of occurrence. The average values and the seasonal variations of the four processes were also considered. The results indicated that the maximum wind speed and air temperature values along the Lower Danube did not suffer significant changes in the last few decades. However, the values of the minimum air temperatures increased with an average value of about 0.8 °C per decade, and the same tendency was noticed also for the average temperatures. Regarding the precipitation, the trend indicated a tendency to decrease by about 0.5 mm per decade, while for the river discharge, a clear increase of more than 1200 m3/s corresponded to each ten-year period. Finally, it can be concluded that the present analysis provided a global and more comprehensive perspective of the recent environmental dynamics along the Lower Danube, delivering useful information for inland navigation, as well as for other human activities.