An Evaluation of the Chinese RMB Internationalization

Abstract

The global financial crisis in 2007 not only had a serious impact on the global financial system, but also led to a more sceptical view of US Dollar's role as the key currency. This opportunity led to the Chinese government actively promoting the internationalization of the Chinese Yuan. The People’s Bank of China has set three goals for the internationalization of the Yuan. The three goals are payment currency for international trade, investment currency and reserve currency. Chinese government set up a Yuan offshore settlement center not only in Hong Kong but also in London, Singapore, Seoul, France, Germany, Taiwan and New York. The Yuan became the world’s fifth-largest payment currency, surpassing the Canadian Dollar and the Australian Dollar in November 2014. The RMB also officially joined the SDR on 1 October, 2016. At present, the SDR currency basket consists of the US Dollar (41.73%), the euro (30.93%), the Chinese Yuan (10.92%), the Japanese Yen (8.33%), and the British Pound (8.09%). The percentage for the Yuan is ranked third after the US Dollar and euro. The internationalization of the Chinese Yuan has advanced rapidly since 2010, but this does not necessarily mean that the Chinese Yuan has reached the same level as the US Dollar or the euro, British Pound, or Japanese Yen. China is the second-largest economy in the world and is only beginning to recognize the need for the internationalization of the Yuan. This study aims to identify the properties and suitability of the RMB as an international currency. GDP, interest rate, and exchange rate were selected as the indicators of real and financial sectors. The empirical results revealed that the RMB manifested badly in the GDP and exchange rate sectors, but that the Chinese interest rate appeared synchronized with the United States' interest rate. Moreover, when the Chinese GDP growth rate is positive or the world economic growth rate is negative, their differences will converge. Similarly, when the Dollar depreciates or the Chinese Yuan appreciates, their differences will converge. There are no significant restrictions keeping the RMB from being incorporated as an international currency. However, the RMB is not yet fully convertible, and the exchange rate is still unstable. Moreover, the Chinese capital market is not yet fully open, and reform of the financial system must be urgently pursued.