An Evaluation of the Arctic Route’s Navigation Environment

Abstract

Along with the development of global warming, the commercial navigation of the Arctic route is getting even more likely, and the whole world is paying more and more attention to it. The analysis of the factors that affect the navigation environment together with the evaluation of the Arctic route’s navigation environment will have an important reference value for the further study of the Arctic route. Thus, based on the summarization of the status and the navigation accident statistics of the Arctic route, the paper establishes an evaluation index system and makes a preliminary evaluation of the Arctic route's navigation environment through a grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Since a lack of accurate data, the indexes' value is given by the expert grading method. Through analysis, we come to conclude that the hydrological factors, navigation aids and information factors are the main factors that affect the Arctic route's navigation environment. Besides, the sea ice concentration, icebreaker and navigation experience are individually the primary factors of the hydrological environment, navigation aids and information environment. As the North Pole goes warming, the hydrological environment will gradually transform, therefore, the navigation aids and information environment in the Arctic will gradually become the limiting factors of the Arctic route's navigation environment. The results of this paper can provide some beneficial reference for the utilization and supervision of the Arctic route.