Abstract

We show that the one-year-ahead forecast of growth in US corporate profits from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, for 1983–2004, is unbiased and superior to the random walk forecast. Survey respondents, however, generally predicted positive growth and thus failed to accurately predict negative growth in corporate profits. This bias may be due to respondents assigning asymmetric costs to incorrect positive and negative growth predictions.

Talk to us

Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have

Schedule a call

Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.