Abstract
This study evaluates the accuracy and potential bias of analyst forecasts for Hong Kong firms published in the Estimate Directory and compares analyst forecasts to model forecasts. It also examines the association of forecast accuracy with various firm characteristics. The findings of the study show that on an overall basis analyst forecasts for Hong Kong firms are more accurate than model forecasts. Analyst forecasts for Earnings Per Share (EPS) are generally biased towards overstatement. The analysis of the association between forecast accuracy and company characteristics suggests that analyst forecasts for larger firms are comparatively more accurate than for smaller firms. As expected, the results also show that analyst forecasts with shorter time horizons are more accurate than forecasts with longer time horizons. The variability in firms' earnings, beta (market risk) or industry classification have no significant impact on the accuracy of analyst forecasts.
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