An Evaluation of Electricity Net Load Profiles and the Baseload Generation Concept

Abstract

Least cost planning and flattening system demand through demand-side management (DSM) was once a driving concept for system planning. This planning approach addressed the idea that flat demand profiles were preferred because they could be served efficiently by baseload generators such as pulverized coal and nuclear plants. New generation construction was driven by peak demand growth, and thus flattening loads delayed new construction and increased baseload capacity factors. Today, primarily due to the focus on renewable portfolio standards (RPS) and subsidies for renewable power, the concept of flattening a system demand profile appears to have fallen in priority. This has resulted in concerns such as the infamous “duck curve” which creates a challenge for California utilities as the unequal match between demand and intermittent renewable resources have created net loads for dispatchable resources to serve at higher costs. This paper provides an analysis of net load profiles (NLP) for several power system regional transmission organizations (RTOs): California (CAISO), Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), PJM Regional Transmission Organization, and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). The objective of this study is to answer the question: Would targeting a level demand profile and high baseload generation result in more efficient power systems, better balancing the use of renewable energy resources (RERs) and effective baseload capacity (EBC)? In answering this question, an analysis was done by simulating the RTO power systems in 2030 as they are estimated to operate after RPS goals have been met by the states in each respective RTO. This future scenario is compared to another scenario in which it is assumed that there are no RPS regulations, and thus no RPS resources supplying electricity in 2030.