Abstract
The Government of Japan plans to expand photovoltaic and wind power drastically. However, since those power outputs fluctuate according to weather conditions, they may require additional load frequency control (LFC) capacity, thereby reducing efficiencies of thermal power generation. In order to evaluate these problems, we developed an optimal power generation mix model named as MM-OPG that deals with multiple modes of operation of each thermal power generation as well as the LFC constraint that the LFC requirements must be secured every moment. The model uses the hourly power demand curves and hourly power supply curves of renewables that are estimated from the actual data for 2010. The purpose of this study is to analyze the power generation mix in Eastern Japan in 2030 with a large penetration of photovoltaic and wind power. We conducted simulations using the model and obtained the following results. The case with the LFC constraint results in more frequent cutoffs of wind power that requires LFC capacity intensively, and an increase in pumped hydropower generation that provides the LFC, compared to the case without such constraint.
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