An Evacuation Analysis Method at Ship Disaster

Abstract

It is necessary for risk evaluation of ship, to estimate lives lost at several accidents such as collision, fire etc.. We are developing an evacuation simulation program for this purpose. Generally an evacuation simulation program is composed of three elemental models which are a space model, an evacuee's model and a disaster model. In the simulation program we use coordinate model which deals with coordinate of point of ship directly, as a space model. An individual model which deals with every evacuee differently, is used as an evacuee's model, and time histories of several type of ship condition such as smoke concentration of corridor, slant of decks, are used as a disaster model. These data are the outputs of disaster simulation programs such as smoke movement simulation program, flooding simulation program. To construct the evacuation simulation program, frame based programming approach has been taken, so that characteristics of evacuees can be modeled precisely and representation of ship structure can be easily modeled. By applying this program to analyze evacuation of tested ship and by using outputs from the smoke movement program, several evacuation simulations were carried out varying start time of evacuees. In the results of these simulations situation of evacuation in the ship was thought to be reasonable. This result shows that this program is appropriate for estimation of lives lost under some kinds of disasters caused by accidents of ship.This paper shows the modeling of the evacuation simulation, and the result of the simulations by using the program.