An ERGM Social Selection Model for International Relations: The EU’s Nuclear Trade Network

Abstract

An ERGM is a statistical model that can verify the existence of links in networks. In specific, an ERGM social selection model verifies various effects of variables related to attributes of actors. Estimates related to attribute variables represent the probability that particular attributes of those actors, or the similarities among and homogeneity of those attributes, affect their relationships in the network. Applying the model to international relations research, we can analyze which attributes of states significantly affect the formation of their relationships at the international system level. In an application, we estimate whether and the extent to which certain subnetwork structures and the attributes of state actors proactively influenced the formation of the EU’s nuclear trade network.