Abstract
Third political parties are influential in shaping American politics. In this work we study the spread of a third party ideology in a voting population where we assume that party members/activists are more influential in recruiting new third party voters than non-member third party voters. The study uses an epidemiological metaphor to develop a theoretical model with nonlinear ordinary differential equations as applied to a case study, the Green Party. Considering long-term behavior, we identify three threshold parameters in our model that describe the different possible scenarios for the political party and its spread. We also apply the model to the study of the Green Party's growth using voting and registration data in six states and the District of Columbia to identify and explain trends over the past decade. Our system produces a backward bifurcation that helps identify conditions under which a sufficiently dedicated activist core can enable a third party to thrive, under conditions which would not normally allow it to arise. Our results explain the critical role activists play in sustaining grassroots movements under adverse conditions.
Highlights
The 2000 United States presidential election was for many a testimony to the impact of third parties in a traditionally bipartisan government
Given the potential relevance of third parties to national politics, we study, qualitatively and numerically, the dynamics of the emergence and spread of third parties on a local level where growth is measured in terms of the number of third party voters and members
The data indicate a clear change in the political landscape in these states following the November 2004 election, in which the positive trends the Green Party had been seeing in recent years reversed, and voters left the Green Party, probably for the Democratic Party which saw gains in the 2006 and 2008 elections
Summary
The 2000 United States presidential election was for many a testimony to the impact of third parties in a traditionally bipartisan government. Ralph Nader, the presidential candidate for the Green Party, won 2% of the popular vote, a percentage that many attribute to the defeat of Democratic candidate Al Gore [35]. The Green Party captured a seemingly insignificant number of votes. Population biology, grassroots political movements, third parties, backward bifurcation
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
