An epidemic of tariffs? infectious disease and global trade in an era of change

Abstract

Purpose: Purpose: To examine the current state of trade related embargoes and regimes and how they affect or are impacted by outbreaks of infectious diseases. Methods & Materials: Methods & Materials: Based on notifications to the World Trade Organization of urgent measures related to health concerns four historical case studies were reviewed: BSE (2000), Cholera in Lake Victoria (1998-2002), Cholera in Peru (1991) and Ebola (2014-2015). Subsequent notifications are also systematically reviewed. These observations are then placed in the context of IHR implementation and the shifting paradigms of the global multilateral trade regime. Results: Results: 1) Health is the major justification provided for urgent measures trade disruption by WTO member countries 2). Historically trade disruption is the major indirect cost of epidemics of infectious diseases 3) “Regionalization” as a national strategy by embargoed countries has mitigated costs of infections declared within nations. 4) In the era of IHR implementation the system remains vulnerable to non tariff trade restriction due to infectious disease outbreaks. This vulnerability may increase in this era of bilateral tariff restrictions. Conclusion: Conclusion: As the global multilateral trading system enters a period of unprecedented challenge through “security” related tariffs and reciprocal tariffs on goods, the potential costs of outbreaks require careful consideration to assure population health into the future.