An entropy measure of uncertainty in vote choice

Abstract

We examine voters’ uncertainty as they assess candidates’ policy positions in the 1994 congressional election and test the hypothesis that the Contract with America reduced voter uncertainty about the issue positions of Republican House candidates. This is done with an aggregate evaluation of issue uncertainty and corresponding vote choice where the uncertainty parameterization is derived from an entropy calculation on a set of salient election issues. The primary advantage is that it requires very few assumptions about the nature of the data. The entropic model suggests that voters used the written and explicit Republican agenda as a means of reducing issue uncertainty without substantially increasing time spent evaluating candidate positions.