An Ensemble Stacking Algorithm to Improve Model Accuracy in Bankruptcy Prediction

Abstract

Bankruptcy analysis is needed to anticipate bankruptcy. Errors in predicting bankruptcy often cause bankruptcy. Machine learning with high accuracy to analyze reversal must continuously improve its accuracy. Many machine learning models have been applied to predict bankruptcy. However, model improvisation is still needed to improve prediction accuracy. We propose a combination model to improve the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction based on a genetic algorithm-support vector machine (GA-SVM) and stacking ensemble method. This study uses the Taiwanese Bankruptcy dataset from the Taiwan Economic Journal. Then we implement a synthetic minority over-sampling technique for handling imbalanced datasets. We select the best feature using GA-SVM, adopt a new strategy by stacking the classifier, and use extreme gradient boosting as a meta-learner. The results show superior accuracy obtained by the stacking model-based GA-SVM with an accuracy of 99.58%. The accuracy obtained is higher than just applying a single classifier. Thus, this study shows that the proposed method can predict bankruptcy with superior accuracy.