An ensemble model for predicting dispositions of emergency department patients

Abstract

ObjectiveThe healthcare challenge driven by an aging population and rising demand is one of the most pressing issues leading to emergency department (ED) overcrowding. An emerging solution lies in machine learning’s potential to predict ED dispositions, thus leading to promising substantial benefits. This study’s objective is to create a predictive model for ED patient dispositions by employing ensemble learning. It harnesses diverse data types, including structured and unstructured information gathered during ED visits to address the evolving needs of localized healthcare systems.MethodsIn this cross-sectional study, 80,073 ED patient records were amassed from a major southern Taiwan hospital in 2018–2019. An ensemble model incorporated structured (demographics, vital signs) and pre-processed unstructured data (chief complaints, preliminary diagnoses) using bag-of-words (BOW) and term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF). Two random forest base-learners for structured and unstructured data were employed and then complemented by a multi-layer perceptron meta-learner.ResultsThe ensemble model demonstrates strong predictive performance for ED dispositions, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94. The models based on unstructured data encoded with BOW and TF-IDF yield similar performance results. Among the structured features, the top five most crucial factors are age, pulse rate, systolic blood pressure, temperature, and acuity level. In contrast, the top five most important unstructured features are pneumonia, fracture, failure, suspect, and sepsis.ConclusionsFindings indicate that utilizing ensemble learning with a blend of structured and unstructured data proves to be a predictive method for determining ED dispositions.