An Enhanced Storm Warning and Nowcasting Model in Pre-Convection Environments

Abstract

A storm tracking and nowcasting model was developed for the contiguous US (CONUS) by combining observations from the advanced baseline imager (ABI) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) short-range forecast data, along with the precipitation rate from CMORPH (the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique). A random forest based model was adopted by using the maximum precipitation rate as the benchmark for convection intensity, with the location and time of storms optimized by using optical flow (OF) and continuous tracking. Comparative evaluations showed that the optimized models had higher accuracy for severe storms with areas equal to or larger than 5000 km2 over smaller samples, and loweraccuracy for cases smaller than 1000 km2, while models with sample-balancing applied showed higher possibilities of detection (PODs). A typical convective event from August 2019 was presented to illustrate the application of the nowcasting model on local severe storm (LSS) identification and warnings in the pre-convection stage; the model successfully provided warnings with a lead time of 1–2 h before heavy rainfall. Importance score analysis showed that the overall impact from ABI observations was much higher than that from NWP, with the brightness temperature difference between 6.2 and 10.3 microns ranking at the top in terms of feature importance.