An energy performance contracting parameter optimization method based on the response surface method: A case study of a metro in China

Abstract

As an effective mechanism for improving energy efficiency, energy performance contracting (EPC) is receiving increasing attention. However, due to many uncertain factors that affect contract parameters, a reasonable distribution of participants' interests is necessary. To reasonably determine EPC contract parameters, this paper proposes a framework based on Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) and the response surface method (RSM) to optimize EPC contract parameters. First, GBM is used to simulate the energy prices, energy savings, energy-saving revenue allocation, etc. Then, the RSM is proposed to optimize multiple contract parameters. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the Wuhan Metro Line 2 lighting system renovation project. The results demonstrate that (a) the contract parameter optimization framework based on the GBM-RSM provides an effective method for optimizing the combination of EPC contract parameters. (b) The GBM-based method of quantitative simulation effectively expresses the uncertain factors of energy-saving performance in EPC renovation and provides reasonable data support for optimizing EPC contract parameters. (c) The established response surface optimization model of EPC contract parameters is an efficiently fitted model. A comparison between the optimization results and actual application results shows the feasibility of response surface optimization of EPC contract parameters, which improves the benefits for the owner of energy-saving renovation and thus increases the owner's enthusiasm, while guaranteeing a reasonable return for energy-saving companies. Hence, this study provides an effective method for optimizing EPC contract parameters and offers a reference for similar problems.