An energy-based quantitative coal burst proneness rating system for development roadways

Abstract

Coal burst is one of the principal hazards in development panels of underground coal mines. This study develops a practical approach to quantitatively estimate coal burst proneness in development roadways. A rigorous numerical and statistical study is conducted to establish a novel burst proneness rating (BPR) system based on energy release characteristics. The rating system includes eight geological and geotechnical factors and covers a wide range of inputs. A dataset including 18 field cases (9 burst and 9 no-burst cases) was used to validate the proposed rating system and to determine a critical BPR value (i.e. the threshold value of burst cases). The probability hat{p}_{burst} of coal bursts was then obtained based on BPR logistic regression. The computed rating values using the BPR system can distinguish burst and no-burst cases that are in line with the scope of the eight input parameters in this study. The model results also showed that the mining depth was the most significant contributor of the energy release, along with roof elastic modulus and coal mass conditions. These results suggested that an environment that consists of relatively weak and brittle coal under high vertical stresses and surrounded by a relatively soft strata could promote unstable failures such as coal bursts.