An End‐To‐End Flood Stage Prediction System Using Deep Neural Networks

Abstract

AbstractThe use of automated methods for detecting and classifying different types of labels in flood images have important applications in hydrologic prediction. In this research, we propose a fully automated end‐to‐end image detection system to predict flood stage data using deep neural networks across two US Geological Survey (USGS) gauging stations, that is, the Columbus and the Sweetwater Creek, Georgia, USA. The images were driven from the USGS live river web cameras, which were strategically located nearby the monitoring stations and refreshed roughly every 30 s. To estimate the flood stage, a U‐Net Convolutional Neural Network (U‐Net CNN) was first stacked on top of a segmentation model for noise and feature reduction that diminished the number of images needed for training. A Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM), a dense model, and a CNN were then trained to predict the flood stage time series data in near real‐time (6, 12, 24, and 48 hr). The results revealed that the U‐Net CNN has a higher accuracy for image segmentation if the algorithm is stacked in front of the network. The absolute error with the U‐Net was 0.0654 feet at the Columbus while it was 0.0035 feet at the Sweetwater Creek, which were practically low for flood stage estimation. For time series prediction, among three models, the LSTM predicted the flood stage values more accurately during both historical (2015–2022) as well as real‐time forecasts, particularly for 24 and 48 hr timescales. We extensively evaluated the proposed flood stage prediction system against current state‐of‐the‐art methodologies partly crowd‐sourced and mined in real‐time.