An empirical study on the relationship between foreign trade of agricultural products and the development of cold chain logistics in Sichuan Province

Abstract

This paper selects the data of Sichuan Province from 2001 to 2018 as the sample, which is the total trade volume of agricultural products (TA), the cold chain logistics volume of agricultural products (CD), and the cold chain logistics volume of agricultural products (CS). Through the time series of three variables, the stationary, co-integration and vector error correction models are used to study the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuations between the agricultural product foreign trade and agricultural product cold chain logistics development level, in order to provide suggestions for the common development of both. The results show that: First, the level of agricultural trade and the level of cold chain logistics of agricultural products continue to increase, but the overall level of the two is still insufficient. Secondly, the time series of the both are smooth sequences through the first-order difference. Through the cointegration test, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship, and the short-term relationship between the two is greater than the long-term relationship. Thirdly, the demand and supply of cold chain logistics of agricultural products is a one-way causal relationship between the trade volume of agricultural products. In the future, we must give full play to the advantages of Sichuan’s characteristic agricultural products and strengthen the construction of logistics facilities and the connection between logistics nodes.