Abstract
In the context of supply-side structural reform, revealing the characteristics of spatial–temporal dynamics and influencing factors of China’s apple production layout is of great significance to ensure apple supply and demand balance and timely adjustment of industrial policies and regional layout strategies. Based on national and provincial apple production data from 1978 to 2016, this study used the apple production concentration index to analyse the evolution characteristics of regional apple production patterns in China. A theoretical analysis framework was established and a spatial econometric model was used to quantitatively explore the influencing factors of China’s apple production layout. The results showed that, first, since the reform and opening-up policy, a general trend of fluctuating growth was found for apple production in China. The centre of apple production layout moved in the southwest direction, with the shift from the Bohai Bay region to the Loess Plateau region. Second, apple production had a significant spatial correlation, while the degree of spatial agglomeration gradually decreased. Third, these changes were significantly influenced by apple comparative income, infrastructure, policies, and climatic conditions. Therefore, it is necessary to continue optimizing and adjusting the apple spatial layout to enhance the technological progress and economic effect of the apple industry and to ensure the stability and balance of regional supply and demand.
Highlights
Since the reform and opening up policy, the apple has taken the lead in entering market-oriented reform
According to the statistics data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC) [2, 3], in the era of rising fruit consumption by both urban and rural residents, the area of apple production increased from 0.68 million ha in 1978 to 2.32 million ha in 2016, with an average annual growth rate of 3.29 percent
Spatial autocorrelation is used to test whether the area of apple production in a certain province is significantly correlated with the areas of apple production in neighbouring provinces
Summary
Since the reform and opening up policy, the apple has taken the lead in entering market-oriented reform. Due to the wide and diverse nature of apple production areas in China, the significant differences in regional resource endowments, technical equipment levels, market development, supply-demand relationship, and government industrial support policies, the production layout, and the spatial development of apples are uneven and uncoordinated. Based on the six factors of resource environment, opportunity cost, infrastructure, technological progress, consumer demand, and policy environment, this study combined the actual situation of China’s apple production development and data accessibility and empirically analysed the influencing factors of China’s apple production layout. Based on the above analysis, the following hypotheses were made: H1: The disaster area of apples has a negative impact on the agglomeration of apple production layout. Based on the above analysis, the following hypothesis was made: H8: Apple consumption demand has a positive impact on the agglomeration of apple production layout. The Bohai Bay and the Loess Plateau production areas are the advantageous apple-producing areas in China [5]
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