An Empirical Study on Financial Distress Early-Warning of Real Estate Listed Companies in China

Abstract

In order to investigate the impact of Macroeconomic Environment and financial factors on Companies in financial distress, This paper collects real estate listed companies from 2001 to 2008 as samples and then develops two models, model I of which introduces financial factors and Model II have the financial factors and the macroeconomic factors integrated together. Then this paper uses Logistic Regression Model to predict the financial Distress of Real Estate Listed companies. The Empirical results indicate that model II improves the goodness of fit and predictive power significantly. Besides, the Money Supply and the Real Estate Climate Index have significant influence on deciding whether the real estate companies falling into financial distress.