An Empirical Study of the Relationship among Population Mobility, Industrial Structure Upgrading, and Economic Growth – Based on the SPVAR Model

Abstract

Based on the inter-provincial panel data for 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2019, and incorporating geospatial factors, a spatial panel vector autoregressive (SPVAR) model consisting of population mobility, industrial structure upgrading, and economic growth is constructed. The space-time impulse response function is used to analyze the space-time conduction of exogenous variables on the impact of three endogenous variables. The study found that first, the population influx barely benefited the industrial structure upgrading and economic growth. Second, the upgrading of the industrial structure would aggravate the population mobility in the province, causing low-level laborers to leave the province in short-term, but in long-term, there would be influx of talents. Third, the economic growth in developed regions plays a significant role in promoting the industrial development of their province and population-rich provinces, but it has less impact on provinces with high-level industrial structure. Finally, policy recommendations are provided in regard to the benign interaction among population mobility, industrial structure upgrading, and economic growth in addition to clarifying the idea of economic development, implementing correct population policies, and promoting the coordinated regional development.