An Empirical Study of the Impact of Consumption on Economic Growth under Negative Population Growth--Based on Panel Data of Countries with Negative Population Growth

Abstract

This paper uses the United Nations World Population Prospects 2022 data to screen out countries with endogenous negative population growth, i.e., aging population and fewer children, and then selects Italy, Japan, and Hungary as typical countries with negative population growth for analysis, combined with the availability of household consumption propensity data. Based on gray correlation analysis, this paper analyzes the relationship between consumption structure and economic growth in typical countries with negative population growth after entering the negative population growth time domain. The analysis results show that food consumption and health care have a greater pull on economic growth, and the correlation between housing consumption and economic growth, although weaker than the first two, still cannot be ignored. Combined with international experience, it can shed light on China, which is about to enter into negative population growth.