An Empirical Study of the Chinese Marriage Market: “Leftover” or Not?

Qingqing Peng,Lei Li

doi:10.4236/jss.2017.58019

Abstract

Using census data from 1990 to 2010, this paper describes the trend of the Chinese marriage market focusing on “leftover men” and “leftover women”. In general, it was identified that there was an increasing share of being single for young and more educated population. The share of single population for less educated men after age 35 was higher than other age groups across the years, providing consistent evidence for leftover men. Meanwhile, more educated women showed no clear difference in marriage rate than others in their late 30s. This study further found that increasing comparative supply of men and more educated women due to demographic change and education reform explains the phenomena observed. In addition, women who get married later were found to have husbands showing disadvantages in age and education level, while men displayed no similar pattern, suggesting that Chinese women might lower their selecting standard as their age increases.

Highlights

Researchers, policy makers and social media in China have discussed widely about the “leftover women” and “leftover men” phenomena
Using census data from 1990 to 2010, this paper describes the trend of the Chinese marriage market focusing on “leftover men” and “leftover women”
This study further found that increasing comparative supply of men and more educated women due to demographic change and education reform explains the phenomena observed

Summary

Introduction

Researchers, policy makers and social media in China have discussed widely about the “leftover women” and “leftover men” phenomena. Massive population of single men could cause distortion in the marriage market, and threaten social stability and economic development (Wei et al, 2011, [4]; Edlund et al, 2013, [5]). Under this circumstance, the leftover women phenomenon seems to be puzzling. It has been identified that more years in education naturally postpone the time for entering the marriage market, as studies using US data show that women with college education put off marriage compared to lower educated groups They show higher final marriage rates between age 30 to 50 (Goldstein et al, 2001, [6]; Lundberg, 2007, [7]).

Data and Summary Statistics

Empirical Analysis

Findings

Conclusions and Discussion