An empirical Stock‐Flow Consistent regional model of Campania

Abstract

AbstractWe develop an innovative Stock‐Flow Consistent macroeconometric regional model with five sectors, exploiting economic and financial statistics for Campania, covering the period 1995–2018, and propose a methodology to close the financial account of the private sector when financial data are lacking. The model is then used to perform medium term Economic Policy Scenario Analysis. We find that a debt‐funded fiscal expansion has permanent positive effects on growth, with an impact multiplier above one and a medium‐run multiplier of 0.71. In the case of a balanced‐budget rule the same increase in government spending has still positive effects on growth – with a medium‐run multiplier of 0.6 – but adverse ones on the private corporate sector.