An empirical rule for extended range prediction of duration of Indian summer monsoon breaks

Abstract

Prediction of the duration of the Indian summer monsoon breaks is highly desirable. It will help in planning water resource management, sowing and harvesting. Applicability of the recently discovered regime transition rules for the Lorenz model in predicting the duration of monsoon breaks, is explored in this paper. Using several indices of the observed summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), it is shown that the peak anomaly in an active regime can be used as a predictor for the duration of the subsequent break spell. It is also found that the average growth rate around the threshold to an active condition can be used as a predictor of the peak anomaly in the active spell. Average growth around the threshold to an active condition can give useful prediction of the duration of the following break, on an average, about 23 days (38 days) in advance of its commencement (end).