An empirical framework for tropical cyclone climatology

Abstract

An empirical approach for analyzing tropical cyclone climate is presented. The approach uses lifetime-maximum wind speed and cyclone frequency to induce two orthogonal variables labeled “activity” and “efficiency of intensity”. The paired variations of activity and efficiency of intensity along with the opponent variations of frequency and intensity configure a framework for evaluating tropical cyclone climate. Although cyclone activity as defined in this framework is highly correlated with the commonly used exponent indices like accumulated cyclone energy, it does not contain cyclone duration. Empirical quantiles are used to determine threshold intensity levels, and variant year ranges are used to find consistent trends in tropical cyclone climatology. In the western North Pacific, cyclone activity is decreasing despite increases in lifetime-maximum intensity. This is due to overwhelming decreases in cyclone frequency. These changes are also explained by an increasing efficiency of intensity. The North Atlantic shows different behavior. Cyclone activity is increasing due to increasing frequency and, to a lesser extent, increasing intensity. These changes are also explained by a decreasing efficiency of intensity. Tropical cyclone trends over the North Atlantic basin are more consistent over different year ranges than tropical cyclone trends over the western North Pacific.