An empirical evaluation of analysts’ herding behavior following Regulation Fair Disclosure

Abstract

This study examines whether analysts’ forecasts exhibited increased herding behavior following the adoption of Regulation Fair Disclosure. A recent model by Arya et al. [Arya, A., Glover, J., Mittendorf, B., Narayanamoorthy, G., 2005. Unintended consequences of regulating disclosures: The case of Regulation Fair Disclosure. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 24 (3), 243–252], using a discrete-time information cascade-based model, projects that one potential consequence of Regulation Fair Disclosure might be increased herding by financial analysts, although previous studies examining the economic consequences of Regulation FD have generally not found any averse consequence for investors. We examine financial analysts forecasting behavior before and after the adoption of Regulation FD in order to determine if such herding of forecasts occurred empirically. Our general finding is that increased herding behavior cannot be detected among either the firms most directly impacted by Regulation FD (those which used to hold closed press conferences), or those least affected (i.e., firms that used to either hold open or no press conferences). However, because analysts face diverse incentives for engaging in either herding or anti-herding behavior, our results are not interpretable as an empirical test of the Arya et al. (2005) theoretical model.