An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output

Abstract

This paper characterizes the dynamic effects of shocks in government spending and taxes on U. S. activity in the postwar period. It does so by using a mixed structural VAR/event study approach. Identiecation is achieved by using institutional information about the tax and transfer systems to identify the automatic response of taxes and spending to activity, and, by implication, to infer escal shocks. The results consistently show positive government spending shocks as having a positive effect on output, and positive tax shocks as having a negative effect. One result has a distinctly nonstandard eavor: both increases in taxes and increases in government spending have a strong negative effect on investment spending. The predominant, Keynesian, view of the effects of escal policy that was embedded in the large-scale macroeconometric models of the seventies and eighties has come under attack. Theoretically, in the neoclassical approach that has developed in the last twenty years, government spending can have drastically different effects than in Keynesian models, particularly on private consumption. Empirically, the response of the economy to several episodes of escal retrenchment in the last efteen years has been at odds with conventional Keynesian wisdom: on several occasions, private consumption and GDP increased signiecantly while government spending was severely cut. Finally, the evidence from large-scale econometric models has been largely dismissed on the grounds that, because of their Keynesian structure, these models assume rather than document a positive effect of escal expansions on output.