An Empirical Analysis of the Heterogeneity in Attitudes toward Uncertainty and Development of a Route-Choice Model for Demand Forecasting

Abstract

Developed in this study is a drivers' route choice model which 1) applies to a general class of drivers, 2) is a model of behavior under uncertainty and accounts for heterogeneity of attitudes toward risk, and 3) can be used to predict route choice probabilities while considering the covariances between error terms of alternative routes. One model is estimated using RP data of drivers' route choices under ordinary traffic condition and another model is estimated using SP data of route choices under extraordinary traffic condition, e. g., traffic condition caused by a road closure. The results indicate that a route choice behavior is influenced by several factors other than travel time, including the number of lanes and traffic speed. Empirical evidence is offered on relations between attitudes toward risk and personal attributes, trip purpose, or the type of information acquired.