An empirical analysis of electric vehicle cost trends: A case study in Germany

Abstract

This study conducts a learning rate analysis on electric vehicle retail prices in Germany between 2015 and 2020 to predict the point of purchase price parity between electric cars and comparable conventional vehicles in different market segments. In small cars, a learning rate of 23% was found. For mid-sized cars, the rate of cost decline was 29%. A learning rate of 24% was observed in the luxury segment. Based on these results, it was found that luxury BEVs would reach price parity by the year 2023, and that midsized vehicle would follow by 2026. For small cars, the results indicate that price parity will not be achieved before the year 2030. The price parity results are complemented with an evaluation of the present and future total cost of ownership of electric and conventional cars. The analysis found that in 2020, mid-size and large electric vehicles were already close to price parity with conventional cars, even before subsidies provided by the German government. Small electric cars still required significant subsidies to be cost-competitive, however. The sensitivity of the analysis results to certain key parameters was evaluated, including the standard error of the learning rates, expected global BEV production in future years, the cost of conventional powertrains, and the effect of government subsidies on the ownership cost, and the duration of the vehicle ownership period. Overall, the results suggest that while the cost gap in larger cars will be closed around the middle of the decade, a higher rate of technological innovation is needed to make small BEVs cost-competitive with gasoline cars before the year 2030.