An Empirical Analysis and Countermeasure Research on the Effect of Logistics Industry on Economic Growth in China

Abstract

In order to study the logistics industry's effect on promoting economic growth, firstly this paper demonstrates the research of the interaction between the two on the basis of the data of GDP and the total social logistics in the period from 1991 to 2013, in the method of Granger-causality test. The result illustrates that there is mutual Granger-causality between the logistics and economic growth. Then, the paper empirically analyzes the contribution of logistics industry to the development of national economy through the GDP for social logistics demand coefficient (LDC), the logistics industry to GDP contribution rate (LCR) and pulling coefficient (LPC). The results present that the relationship between logistics industry and economic growth shows that more obvious is the promoting influence of economic on the logistics industry than the other way around. Finally, according to analysis of the cause about the coefficient changes, some strategic suggestions are provided for development of modern logistics industry to economic growth effectively. Since the 1980s, influenced by the reform and opening policies, Chinese economy has achieved an unprecedented pace of development. According to statistics from National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the GDP increased from 2.18 trillion RMB to 56.88 trillion RMB during 1991 to 2013, annual growth rate actually was 16%; Meanwhile, according to the statistics of International Monetary Fund (IMF), the contribution rate of China for globally economic growth in 2014 would reach 27.8%, while in the same year the contribution rate of U.S. for globally economic growth would be 15.3%. China had a large effect on stimulating globally economic growth. The rapid development of China's logistics industry was driven by the good circumstances of economy and the rapid growth of market demand. The logistics industry was 3.9 trillion RMB in 2013, which accounts for 6.8% of GDP. Generally speaking, with the limit of the dual economic structure, the promoting effect of the logistics industry on economic growth is at a lower level.