An Elevation-Based Stratification Model for Simulating Land Use Change

Erqi Xu,Lina Yao,Hongqi Zhang

doi:10.3390/rs10111730

Erqi Xu, Lina Yao + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10111730

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Abstract

Land use significantly influences the planet’s land surface and associated biogeochemical processes. With fierce conflict between various land uses, it is important to project the land system process to support decision-making. Lack of insight into scale differences of land use change (LUC) increased uncertainties in previous studies. To quantify the differences in LUCs within an elevation gradient, in this study, a novel model, the stratified land use change simulation model (SLUCS), was developed by using an elevation-based stratification strategy. This model consists of four modules. First, an elevation-based stratification module to develop a quantitative method for generating stratifications using elevation and land-use characteristics. Second, a non-spatial land-use demand module to forecast the overall land use area and make zoning constraints to simulate LUCs. Third, a stratified suitability estimation module that uses the stratified logistic regression method to reveal the regional relationship of the driving factors with LUCs at different stratifications. Finally, a spatial allocation of the land-use module, which projects a spatially explicit LUC. The SLUCS model was applied and tested in the Guizhou and Guangxi Karst Mountainous Region. Results validated the effectiveness of the model, and further demonstrated an improved spatial consistency with the reference, a higher accuracy assessment, and a better simulation performance in conversion areas than the traditional method. Three scenarios from 2015 to 2030 with different land-use priorities were designed and projected. Each scenario presented the same LUC trends, but with different magnitudes, including the rapid expansion of built-up land, the restoration of forest and water, and the loss of farmland and grassland. Priority of the socioeconomic development and ecological protection of the scenarios forecasted a sharper increase in the built-up land and in forests than the historical extrapolation scenario. The SLUCS model visually projected the LUC trajectory and competition between land uses, which suggests specific tradeoffs among management strategies to support sustainable land uses.

Highlights

Land-use activities, activities converting natural landscapes for human use or changing management practices on human-dominated lands, have transformed the planet’s land surface [1,2]
Not unlike the method of subjective division used in previous studies [16,18], the elevation-based stratification module of the stratified land use change simulation model (SLUCS) model developed a quantitative method of dividing the study area into multiple stratifications
The first module developed a quantitative method of generating stratifications at the optimal segmentation size using ASDintra, LVinter, and optimal segment score (OSS), which considered the intra-segment homogeneity and inter-segment heterogeneity of land-use characteristics

Summary

Introduction

Land-use activities, activities converting natural landscapes for human use or changing management practices on human-dominated lands, have transformed the planet’s land surface [1,2]. Land is becoming a scarce resource, which leads to the fierce competition and conflict between various groups of people [3]. The conversion of Earth’s land surface to urban uses drives the loss of farmland, affects local climate, fragments habitats, and threatens biodiversity [5]. Afforestation/reforestation projects have been implemented to mitigate climate change and sustain land systems [6]. As a force of global importance, significantly influences the atmosphere, pedosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere of the earth [8], and its change results in climatic, biological, and socio-political forces [9,10]. With different demands for economic growth, population growth, and ecological restoration and protection, modeling and projecting land-use change processes is necessary to support the design and implementation of land-use planning and policy

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