Abstract

An elaboration of the relationship between changes in an area's general hospital bed supply and changes in its hospital utilization rate is performed using path analysis in order to test two opposing interpretations of this relation. One interpretation sees this relationship as spurious due to the antecedent effect of high demand and consequent unmet need that leads both to increased bed supply and to increased utilization. The opposing interpretation accepts the relationship as causal and sees it operating through the intervening mechanism of changes in the way medicine is practiced in that area. The analysis, using data for New York State counties collectedfrom American Hospital Association statistics, supports the causal rather than the spurious interpretation. The implications of this result for health care delivery are discussed.

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