An efficient method for stochastic optimal control with joint chance constraints for nonlinear systems

Abstract

SummaryStochastic model predictive control hinges on the online solution of a stochastic optimal control problem. This paper presents a computationally efficient solution method for stochastic optimal control for nonlinear systems subject to (time‐varying) stochastic disturbances and (time‐invariant) probabilistic model uncertainty in initial conditions and parameters. To this end, new methods are presented for joint propagation of time‐varying and time‐invariant probabilistic uncertainty and the nonconservative approximation of joint chance constraint (JCC) on the system state. The proposed uncertainty propagation method relies on generalized polynomial chaos and conditional probability rules to obtain tractable expressions for the state mean and covariance matrix. A moment‐based surrogate is presented for JCC approximation to circumvent construction of the full probability distribution of the state or the use of integer variables as required when using the sample average approximation. The proposed solution method for stochastic optimal control is illustrated on a nonlinear semibatch reactor case study in the presence of probabilistic model uncertainty and stochastic disturbances. It is shown that the proposed solution method is significantly superior to a standard random sampling method for stochastic optimal control in terms of computational requirements. Furthermore, the moment‐based surrogate for the JCC is shown to be substantially less conservative than the widely used distributionally robust Cantelli‐Chebyshev inequality for chance constraint approximation.