An Efficient Hybrid Intelligent Method for Electricity Price Forecasting

Abstract

In this paper an efficient method is proposed for electricity price forecasting. This paper focuses on Locational Marginal Price (LMP) that efficiently maintains power markets by alleviating transmission network congestion. There are complicated behaviors of the time series due to uncertain factors in the power markets. From a standpoint of market players, a sophisticated method is required to forecast LMP effectively. The proposed method makes use of the hybridization of GP (Gaussian Process) of hierarchical Bayesian estimation, EPSO (Evolutionary Particle Swarm Optimization) of evolutionary computation and fuzzy c-means of allowing data to belong to two or more clusters. EPSO is used to improve the accuracy of parameters in MAP (Maximum a Posteriori) estimation for GP. The use of fuzzy c-mean is useful for increasing the number of learning data for GP to deal with spikes. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated for real LMP data.