Abstract
Background: The present work develops an accurate prediction model of the COVID-19 pandemic, capable not only of fitting data with a high regression coefficient but also to predict the overall infections and the infection peak day as well. Method: The model is based on the Verhulst equation, which has been used to fit the data of the COVID-19 spread in China, Italy, and Spain. This model has been used to predict both the infection peak day, and the total infected people in Italy and Spain. Findings: With this prediction model, the overall infections, the infection peak, and date can accurately be predicted one week before they occur. According to the study, the infection peak took place on March 23 in Italy, and on March 29 in Spain. Moreover, the influence of the total and partial lockdowns has been studied, without finding any meaningful difference in the disease spread. However, the infected population, and the rate of new infections at the start of the lockdown, seem to play an important role in the infection spread. Interpretation: The developed model is not only an important tool to predict the disease spread, but also gives some significant clues about the main factors that affect to the COVID-19 spread, and quantifies the effects of partial and total lockdowns as well. Funding Statement: The authors have not received any funding for their work. Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.
Highlights
A pandemic like the one caused by the COVID-19 virus is not new to humanity
The model is based on the Verhulst equation, which has been used to fit the data of the COVID-19 spread in China, Italy, and Spain
And Spain had a number of infected people higher than in China; but Spain, with fewer infected people, had a higher peak than Italy, so other additional factors have an influence on this peak
Summary
A pandemic like the one caused by the COVID-19 virus is not new to humanity. it is a recurring theme in history. Previous pandemics like the “Black Death” (1347–1351) or the “Spanish Flu” (1918–1919) caused many deaths and devastation in cities and countries [1]. Even these lasted more than a year, an aspect that seems impossible for the COVID-19 pandemic due to the strong measures already taken around the world. It seems that we are facing another important pandemic, the amount of information generated since the first case was detected makes it special. There is no doubt that the large amount of daily data has helped in the creation of an accurate evolution model that helps governments in decision making
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
